Here is a list of posts & ideas I found especially insightful.


A great piece on psychology, predictions and biases by Morgan Housel: The Psychology of Prediction

An interesting note from Taleb on ergodicity in a risk-taking environment: The Logic of Risk Taking

A good bit of explaining why known trading strategies still work. By Cliff Asness: How Can a Strategy Everyone Knows About Still Work

A detailed explanation how moving averages work as downside protection, and a great long-term strategy introduced: Philosophical Economics: Growth and Trend

A clever analogy between engineering stress–strain curves and financial risk–return spectra and efficient portfolios authored by Matt Hollerbach, Breaking the Market: Factor of Safety

An explanation of the relation of the Kelly criterion to the tangency portfolio of an efficient frontier by Matt Hollerbach: Kelly Investing is About Slope



Data sources


An updated repository of historical returns between asset classes, sectors, international markets and emerging markets. Not the original source of the data, a compilation, but a beautiful one. By Novel Investor.

Latest OECD CLI data needed for calculation of the Diffusion Index of the Global Growth Cycle strategy is available for download at the OECD.Stat data page. Current OECD CLI data publication schedule.